Take the Rams plus the points...

TonyFinn · Oct 23, 2011

<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal</w:View> <w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:TrackMoves/> <w:TrackFormatting/> <w

unctuationKerning/> <w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/> <w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w

oNotPromoteQF/> <w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther> <w:LidThemeAsian>X-NONE</w:LidThemeAsian> <w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript> <w:Compatibility> <w:BreakWrappedTables/> <w:SnapToGridInCell/> <w:WrapTextWithPunct/> <w:UseAsianBreakRules/> <w

ontGrowAutofit/> <w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/> <w

ontVertAlignCellWithSp/> <w

ontBreakConstrainedForcedTables/> <w

ontVertAlignInTxbx/> <w:Word11KerningPairs/> <w:CachedColBalance/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> <m:mathPr> <m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/> <m:brkBin m:val="before"/> <m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/> <m:smallFrac m:val="off"/> <m:dispDef/> <m:lMargin m:val="0"/> <m:rMargin m:val="0"/> <m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/> <m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/> <m:intLim m:val="subSup"/> <m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/> </m:mathPr></w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--> There are a number of expected quarterback changes for Sunday's Week 7 contests. Minnesota's Leslie Frazier is trying to get rookie Christian Ponder some experience. Denver's John Fox wants to get a look at Tim Tebow. And Mike "The Rat" Shanahan has sobered up and realized that Rex Grossman isn't the answer in Washington. Oakland was forced into a change with the injury to Jason Campbell.

Pertaining to the game in question, Sam Bradford, who has been sacked a NFL-high 21 times, did not practice this week, and won't play Sunday. Save the former Sooner All American, the Rams are actually as healthy as they have been since breaking camp in early September. While Bradford is one of the brightest young players in the league the Rams will simplify things today and have a chance to play their best this season with veteran A.J. Feeley under center. Feeley has only two starts since middle of the decade but he is no rookie and won't sweat the road start.

It is Dallas who has injury concerns, much more so than the focus on the St Louis quarterback, with tailback Felix Jones (high ankle sprain) and blindside left guard Bill Nagy out with a broken ankle. The Boys will send undrafted rookie Kevin Kowalski into the starting O-line mix. It is possible that Kowalski could see some time at center, too, with Costa moving to the guard slot.

Fact: the Rams are averaging a league low 9.8 points per game this season.
Myth: the offense doesn't have the talent to be more than they have been in the first five games of the season. Outside a handful of teams in the entire league any team can win anywhere on any given Sunday. The Rams are, despite their 0-5 record, more than capable of upsetting an inconsistent and injured Dallas squad. The Rams were able to generate yardage last week in Green Bay, but came away with only three points thanks to several pre-snap penalties, a missed field goal, an end zone interception and a couple of drops. Finishing drives has been a problem all season for the league’s worst scoring offense -- Dallas' leaky secondary has been less than average defending the redzone.

Fact: the Cowboys rank third in the league in total yards allowed this season (307 per game) but 19th in points allowed at just over 24 a game.
Myth: the No 1 ranked defense against the run is skewed. Their five opponents on the Dallas schedule this season have a combined Pass:Run ratio that is higher than any other team in the league in their first five games.
Week 1: Jets - 16 rushing attempts
Week 2: 49ers - 22 rushing attempts (regulation)
Week 3: Redskins - 22 rushing attempts
Week 4: Detroit - 17 rushing attempts
Week 5: New England - 25 rushing attempts

After playing every snap in his rookie season Bradford injured a finger on his throwing hand versus Philly (Week 1) and has been pounded by poor offensive line play since. He hasn't been close to 100 percent and veteran quarterback Feeley has a chance to do just enough to give his team a chance to win Sunday on the "star". However, taking the 14 points today is solid value. To be fair to the Rams offensive line - a unit that showed some continuity versus Green Bay a week ago with 424-yards of offense, will have more options after signing receiver Brandon Lloyd this past week. The return of Mark Clayton from the PUP is big for the offense, too, but Clayton's availability for today's game is still a question mark.

Dallas has had every game decided by four or fewer points and has been inconsistent late in games. The Cowboys have blown fourth-quarter leads in all of their losses and trailed entering the final period in their victories.

The Rams made a move to bolster a thin receiving corps Monday by acquiring Lloyd from Denver for a conditional 2012 draft pick. Lloyd is familiar with St. Louis offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, his previous coach with the Broncos, and will see the field today.

Steven Jackson ran for a season-high 96 yards in the Rams' 24-3 loss at Green Bay on Sunday and the Cowboys 69.6 yards rushing per game isn't all it appears.

This game might scream Cowboy win and the public has continued to back the Boys in this late Sunday affair - but in reality it has the makings of another close contest for Dallas and possibly the first win of the season for St Louis.

Trends backing a play on the double-digit road dog.
-- Fading home teams (Boyz) coming off a road cover but a straight up road loss when the oddsmakers open the home chalk at 10.5 or more is 17-4 over the last 10 NFL campaigns.
--DALLAS is 1-10 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons losing outright by and average of three points; 0-6 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last three seasons and 0-6 ATS in home games in the first half of the season, this over the last three NFL campaigns.

I'll take the 14 points (15.5 at 5Dimes) and the Rams.

Take the Rams plus the points...

Search

TonyFinn

Who2BetOn.com

Forum statistics

Share this page